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By Lanbo Jiang

Early in the 1970s, from the Middle East of geopolitical events triggered the post-war international oil prices to direct the first rise considerably, successively repetition-priming “first oil crisis” and “second oil crisis” and opened a brand-new high oil prices period. Early 2011, Tunisia, such as Egypt nations successively outbreak large-scale conflict and has been in international oil price highs in such geopolitical risk high support more strong and firm. More serious is the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean Sea is the important oil passage, if the Suez Canal closed, oil transportation cost will be increased, resulting short-term concussion international oil price. Of course, the effect is relatively short. After all, through the Suez Canal transportation of oil per cent of global traffic volume of 3%.

In fact, Egypt social unrest from the biggest influence on international, not the Suez Canal, but this kind of unrest short-term closed as dominoes as in the Arab and islamic nations spread. As is known to all, the Middle East is always of the world’s oil major oil-producing areas, geopolitical events will seriously affect the normal oil production, and caused by the uncertainty and will further sparked international oil prices bullish.

Since America and Iran still insist on their respective positions, the latest round of Iran’s nuclear talks to naught, Iran’s nuclear issue therefore also sparked international oil shocks major factors. Can foresee, if Iran and western relationship again by more and more international sanctions worsening, inevitably will. So, the international oil prices will rapidly sharply.

In determining the international oil price movements three wrestling factors, have a kind of constitute the international oil prices pressures. This is the global economic recovery foreground is not optimistic, and new energy momentum of development.

Earlier in the davos world economy end BBS meeting, from all over the world heads of government and social elite debate world economic recovery prospects. Analysts believe that although the current global economy is recovering, no second agent at the bottom of the trouble back at home, but they are confronted with hot dual test, the way to recovery is not flat, and the economic development of the world center of gravity is gradually from west to east, bysouthing north metastasis.

The United Nations department of economic and social affairs issued 2011 the world economic situation and outlook report, this year’s world economic growth for 3.1%, than last year’s 3.6 percent drop. At the same time also estimates, although the United States is from the second world war since the most lasting and deepest degree recessions recovery, but recovery speed slow unprecedented, even many European countries economic growth will remain at low levels, but due to financial expenditure, sharp decrease of some countries might again into recession. Among them, the American economic growth will slow to 2.2%, Europe and Japan’s economy growing more slowly, respectively is expected to 1.3% and 1%. The organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) is given the same forecasting results, the organization the latest oil market monthly worldwide, the report showed each big economies in 2011 than economic growth slowed in 2010, the OECD’s growth will from 2.6% decline to 2.0%, China’s and India’s growth rate fell to 8.8% and 8.0% for respectively. In view of each big institutions widespread belief that the American economy in 2011, but difficult to really recovery from have data to see, the American economy development is always judge international oil price movements crucial reference standards, and thus, the American one of sustained economic downturn on international oil prices will cause tremendous pressure drop.

Since the financial crisis since China has become a global economic growth to pull the most important engine, China’s oil demand has also become support international of high oil prices is the most fundamental factor. China customs administration announced the latest statistics show that January 2011 in China imports of crude total to 2180 tons, annulus increase 4.5%, more than 27 percent year-on-year growth rate, which indicates that the 2011 China’s oil demand is still very strong, however, China’s new oil demand cannot fully offset America, Japan and other developed economies have reduced oil consumption. Therefore, the global economic slowdown in fact will lead to international oil prices appear even fall through.

The traditional gas-guzzling, high pollution model of economic development has been confirmed as the unsustainable as fossil energy alternative energy resources, the rapid development of new energy can be reduced to the world the huge demand for fossil energy is not only beneficial to protect the environment, but also help restrain international oil prices rise rapidly. At present, such as solar power, nuclear energy, water, wind and biomass energy and other new energy has experienced rapid development phase, “base small, faster” is the biggest characteristic in this period. Since the Copenhagen conference, international society since energy saving and emission reduction growing calls to the extent was effectively inhibited future international oil prices rising fast momentum.

However, the new energy development space still is relatively limited, estimate the best development period or will appear in international oil price break, and then, after 100 new energy appear large-scale development time just the most mature. Therefore, in the next ten years, oil and other fossil energy in the world economic development process will still dominant, and petroleum as industrial “black blood” status will not change.

About the Author: I am Lanbo Jiang, and my work is to promote a free online trade platform. http://www.chinaqualitylighting.com/ contain a great deal of information about

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